EXCLUSIVE: ROMNEY UP ONE POINT IN OHIO AND TIED IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WISCONSIN, ACCORDING TO HIS CAMPAIGN'S INTERNAL POLLING (OBAMA ALSO JOINED BY CELEBRITY ALLIES JAY-Z AND BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN)

By TOBY HARNDEN

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio - the swing state that could well decide the election - according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed on Sunday night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin. Most startlingly, the figures show Romney and Obama deadlocked in Pennsylvania.

If the Romney campaign's internal numbers are correct - and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama - then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President.

  

Pulling ahead? Mitt Romney and his wife Ann wave during a campaign rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia today. Victory in sight: If the internal polling is correct, it would make Romney the 45th President

Optimistic: The Romneys apparently believe they will soon be installed in the White House

Leader of the free world?The Romney campaign is increasingly confident

'Done': Romney's advisers believe that he has won Virginia, Florida (where Romney is pictured here today) and North Carolina from Obama

The internal polls show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.

Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years. The stops were added to Romney's schedule at the 11th hour in large part because of the internal polls.

Despite the Romney campaign's optimism, a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on the evening before the election gave Obama a slim lead, with 50 per cent for the President compared to 47 per cent for his challenger.

Polls released by Gallup and Rasmussen, however, both gave Romney a 49 per cent of the national vote, ahead of Obama on 48 per cent.

Poignant: The President talks to a 95-year-old veteran of World War II on the tarmac at Rickenbacker International Airport in Ohio

Asset: First Lady Michelle Obama spoke on her husband's behalf in North Carolina on Monday

Mobbed: The First Lady is surrounded by cameras and cell phones following the North Carolina rally

Nearly all public polling put Obama ahead in Ohio by whisker at least. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there gives the president a 2.8 per cent advantage.

But the Romney campaign insists that pollsters have their models wrong and are overestimating Democratic turnout, oversampling Democrats and underestimating Republican enthusiasm.

The most dramatic shift in the Romney campaign's internal polling has been in Wisconsin, which has moved from being eight points down to pulling level. Obama is campaigning in the state on the eve of election day.

Crucial: Obama holds a rally in Madison, Wisconsin, today as he tries to claw back the lead that Romney has taken by surprise in the state

Star support: Obama has even called on the pulling power of Bruce Springsteen to lure voters in Wisconsin

Gruelling: Both candidates will take it to the wire as they endure punishing whirlwind tour of the swing state in the final 24 hours

 Advantage Romney: The GOP challenger holds a slender lead in national polls from Rasmussen (left) and Gallup (right) released on Monday

Despite the Obama campaign's insistence that Romney's late decision to contest Pennsylvania is an act of 'desperation', former President Bill Clinton - Obama's most valuable ally on the stump - is holding four eve-of-election events there.

A surprise Romney win in Pennsylvania, which has 20 of the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory, would almost certainly be a fatal blow to Obama's re-election hopes.

If Romney took Wisconsin, that would offer him a credible path to victory without winning Ohio.

The Romney campaign believes that both Florida, Virginia and North Carolina - all of which Obama won in 2008 - are 'done' for the Democratic incumbent, as one senior adviser put it.

Many Republicans party officials are less bullish about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than the Romney campaign, believing their nominee will probably fall short there, setting up a showdown in Ohio, which has 18 electoral college votes and decided the 2004 election for President George W. Bush.

Support: Obama was joined by celebrity allies Jay-Z and Bruce Springsteen at an event in Ohio

Source: dailymail.co.uk